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Why We Don’t Let Pollsters Chart Hurricane Courses

Monday, November 6, 2006  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

A.J. Strata employs a brilliant analogy to explain why the pollsters are scrambling:

If you notice any hurricane track prediction it is in the shape of a funnel or cone. As the storm comes closer to land, and variables become less variable, the cone tightens down. These are classic stastical model outputs and the storm’s path, the cone’s center line, is usual pretty accurate. But it can

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