“Voters who consider themselves conservatives favored Romney. That suggests McCain faces an uphill battle in states where the Republican electorate is more conservative than in New Hampshire.”
For more analysis on who lifted McCain to victory in New Hampshire, see the analysis from Hillary Needs A Vacation.
Hint: It wasn’t Reagan-Bush conservatives. As noted below, the key contest will be Florida where all the candidates must compete and where the GOP electorate is large and diverse. McCain must win Florida, or his campaign will be revealed for the anti-GOP base coaltion I suspect it really is.
More from NocoPolitics:
Romney did well in two areas: Suburban commuter towns and post-industrial cities. He won the big towns like Salem and Derry (and by “big,” I mean they’re bigger than many of the small cities). He also won Nashua and held his own in Manchester, two cities that have seen hard times and yet now often end up on national rankings as “great places to live.”
McCain did well in three areas: Liberal bastions, cities that are still struggling and rural New Hampshire. McCain won Concord, Keene, Portsmouth, the Upper Valley and the Seacoast handily, as expected. He also did well in places like Somersworth, Rochester and Claremont. He won in the North Country.
If your urban neighbors are liberals, if you live in a small, struggling city, or if you live in a rural community, you voted McCain. If you live in an “up and coming” city or on a two-acre lot, you voted for Romney.
This suggests trouble for Romney in Michigan, but open field running in Florida and beyond.