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The Road To 51 Needs 15 Key Wins In the Senate

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Americans concerned over the increasingly grim situation of the country’s economy and its place in the world know that the November elections are a key to restoring fiscal sanity, military preparedness and national security seriousness to America.

My friend Geraghty the Indispensable has charted 99 House races in which Republicans are competitive in the fall. With a 59-41 Senate, the GOP must retain the seats of all incumbents, hold on to six “open” seats in New Hampshire, Florida, Kentucky, Ohio, Missouri and Utah, and must win 10 seats currently held by a Democrat. With most of the primaries concluded or with a front-runner in place, here are the tough races that Republicans must win on the road to 51.

I assume that the GOP will easily hold on to the seats it holds in Arizona and Utah. The former is assured if John McCain is nominated, and the latter appears to be a lock no matter who is nominated to replace Senator Bennett. Senators Burr in North Carolina and Vitter in Louisiana seem to be on a path to re-election.

The five “must holds” which will feature serious Democratic efforts to turn a red seat blue:

Marco Rubio must win in Florida over Kendrick Meek and Charlie Crist. Rubio is ahead among likely voters.

Rand Paul must win in Kentucky. Paul is ahead in most polls.

Rob Portman must win in Ohio. Portman is in a dead heat, but the state is trending GOP.

Kelly Ayotte must win in New Hampshire. Ayotte is leading in the polls.

Roy Blunt must win in Missouri. He is ahead in most polls.

The 11 target seats from which 10 victories must be collected:

Mike Castle must win in Delaware, and he is ahead in every poll.

Linda McMahon must win in Connecticut where the impact of Dick Blumentahl’s deceptions about his service in Vietnam will show up in polls beginning next week.

Pat Toomey must win in Pennsylvania, and the race is a dead heat as of now.

John Boozman must win in Arkansas and he is leading Blanche Lincoln.

Dan Coates must win in Indiana, and he is leading.

Mark Kirk must win in Illinois, and he is leading

John Hoeven must win in North Dakota and he is winning easily.

Jane Norton is the front-runner for the GOP nomination in Colorado and is in a dead heat with Michael Bennet.

The race between Sharon Angle, Sue Lowden and Danny Tarkanian for the GOP nomination and the right take on Harry Reid will be decided June 8, and it is very close. All three candidates are leading Reid at this point, though Reid clearly fears Lowden the most because of her personal wealth.

Dino Rossi must beat Patty Murray in Washington State, and he is going to be very competitive.

In California, the race between Tom Cambell, Chuck DeVore and Caley Fiorina has been spirited, but Carley Fiorina is surging, and she will be very competitive with Barbara Boxer.

In any other year, this map to a majority is very difficult to imagine happening.

But fueled by the Tea Party and energized by the president’s blend of ideological extremism and doleful incompetence, regaining a majority of the United States Senate is at least possible.

Each candidate’s name is linked to their online contribution site. Please consider at least a $25 contribution to one of them this long weekend, and if you can swing it, to all 16. That’s a $400 investment in the country’s future on the weekend we salute those who gave their all, and it really isn’t too much to ask.



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