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The “N/Y” Democrats

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When and if a House vote is taken on the Senate version of Obamacare, all Democrats will have sorted themselves into one of four boxes –Y/Y, N/N, Y/N and N/Y.

A Y/Y Dem will have voted for Obamacare in the fall and also for the Senate bill. This makes them big government liberals or worse, but at least consistent.

The N/N Dems will have a record of at least voting against the destruction of American health care, and this will make them the most-difficult-to-defeat targets in the fall elections.

A Y/N Democrat has a chance to make an argument to their constituents that they listened and acted in response to what the clear will of people was indicating. Others in this group may cite their unwillingness to trust the so-call “sidecar fix” process or their inability to vote for public funding of abortion. Their support for Obamacare in the fall will take some explaining, but at least they will have a story to tell.

The N/Y Democrats will be wearing the biggest targets in November, for they will have no story to tell except that they cravenly tried to hide from the voters in the fall by voting “no,” but when summoned by San Fran Nan they buckled under and provided the vote she needed. Thus they will be revealed as both cowardly and deceitful, as well as not particularly smart.

Pelosi will try and minimize the number of Democrats on this list, and will probably not even take a vote if she cannot get to 216, but whoever crosses over from a “no vote” in the fall to a yes vote on the Senate bill will attract enormous waves of opposition energy and money beginning almost the day after any vote on the Senate bill.

Jay Cost, whose “Horserace Blog” is following the head count closely, identifies a half-dozen Democrats who he puts in the “persuadable” category, meaning the six Dems who are mostly likely to go over from opposition to Obamacare in the fall to support of the Senate bill now and thus into the “N/Y” category:

1. John Adler (NJ-3)
2. Brian Baird (WA-3)
3. John Boccieri (OH-16)
4. Bart Gordon (TN-6)
5. Suzanne Kosmas (FL-24)
6. Scott Murphy (NY-20)

By contrast, Cost has identified 16 Democrats who are potential Y/Ns and who have publicly indicated some concern over the Senate bill:

1. Michael Arcuri (NY-24)
2. Marion Berry (AR-1)
3. Shelley Berkley (NV-1)
4. Dennis Cardoza (CA-18)
5. Henry Cuellar (TX-27)
6. Kathy Dahlkemper (PA-3)
7. Joe Donnelly (IN-2)
8. Raul Grijalva (AZ-7)
9. Baron Hill (IN-9)
10. Steve Kagen (WI-9)
11. Dan Lipinski (IL-3)
12. Dan Maffei (NY-25)
13. James Oberstar (MN-8)
14. Earl Pomeroy (ND-AL)
15. Kurt Schrader (OR-5)
16. Bart Stupak (MI-1)
17. Dina Titus (NV-3)

Use the House switchboard at 202-224-3121 and call all 23 Democrats listed above with the same message: Any vote for the Senate bill means strong opposition from you and support for their opponents.

And tell the potential N/Y Democrats that they are the most endangered incumbents of them all.


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