I hate slow news weeks. The 100 day mark was reached this week, a pandemic’s approach announced, one of the Big Three entered bankruptcy, Arlen Specter bolted and Justice Souter announced his retirement. And of course Congressional Democrats broke the Senate’s long tradition and announced that radical restructuring of health care would occur with only 50 votes needed in the Senate.
These are all major stories, and if the H1N1 virus follows the path of its ancestor the Spanish flu, even if it remains a mild influenza throughout this first wave, its return in the fall could be catastrophic. That is a fall story, though, and though the next 100 days will feature great American debates on Justice Souter’s replacement and on the attempt by Democrats to impose “single payer” on an unwilling public via a name change and the compliance of the MSM, the most important story for the whole world by far will be events in Iran.
If Ahmadinejad is re-elected, the conventional wisdom is that Israel will have no choice but to act against the mullahs, and the events that follow such action could be perilous far beyond the Israel-Iran context. Even if Ahmadinejad loses, the rhetoric of his successor will not matter if the actions of the “Supreme Guide” Ayatollah Ali Khamenei remain the same. The Iranian presidential election and its immediate aftermath is thus the key event of the next 100 days.
To understand where Iran is and how it operates, be sure to read the transcript of my interview this week with Amir Taheri, or listen to the podcast of hour one and hour two. Better yet, get and read his book The Persian Night. The summer of Iran is going to quickly replace the spring of the Obama Administration.