Our model now estimates that the Republicans have a 72 percent chance of taking over the House, up from 67 percent last week. Moreover, they have nearly even odds of a achieving a net gain of 50 seats; their average gain in a typical simulation run was between 47 and 48 seats. However, the playing field remains very broad and considerably larger are possible, as are considerably smaller ones.
The wave could well be growing, in fact, and feels that way to the many veterans of campaigns past I have spoken to while on the road in Atlanta, San Diego, and Minneapolis this past week. The grim economic news and the continuing cluelessness of the president and vice president combine to sap the left’s energy and drive the center-right to a desperately needed correction in the country’s course.