I will be broadcasting five hours from Atlanta today, including a special two hour broadcast on the results from Illinois following my regular program. To get the show started while the dead are voting twice up in the Land of Lincoln, I’ll spend the first hour of the program with best-selling novelist C.J. Box, whose Joe Pickett novels routinely debut in the top 10 of the New York Times’ list. His newest Joe adventure, Force of Nature, has a Looming Tower angle that listeners to my show will love as they have heard that Wright on air with me many times.
Hours two through five will of course dial in on the results from the Illinois primary, where Mitt Romney is expected to win. Polling is all over the map, from a four to a 15 point lead, but what matters of course is absent a lightning strike, Romney’s delegate lead will get padded –again– and combined with his romp in Puerto Rico Sunday, even the MSM’s most fanatical spinner of brokered convention death stars popping up from a string theory universe we never knew existed will have to concede that Mitt Romney is indeed the de facto GOP nominee.
A sort of farewell to “brokered convention pieces” is offered up by the Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes, an article that might first seem to fabulists in love with unicorns and multiple ballots to be an offering of hope, ends this way on the “chance” of a brokered convention:
How likely is it? In the 1994 movie Dumb and Dumber?-? juvenile, but classic?-?Jim Carrey plays Lloyd Christmas, a dimbulb who battles with his good friend and fellow idiot, Harry Dunne, to win the heart of Aspen, Colorado, socialite Mary Swanson. Swanson finds the men repulsive, but an indefatigable Christmas pursues her despite her obvious lack of interest. At one point, he asks her to level with him about his chances.
“Not good,” she replies.
“You mean, not good like one in a hundred?”
“I’d say . . . more like one in a million.”
After a brief pause, a wide smile creeps across his face, and he pumps his fist. “So you’re telling me there’s a chance!”
That’s a brilliant if somewhat cruel way of using film to convey probability in the political context. Over at InTrade, Romney’s probability of the nomination is over 90%, about as high as it can go until he formally accumulates 1144 delegates, and even then it won’t go to 100%, because meteors do strike. Romney friend David Parker outlines why we would have seen the meteor approaching by now.
So the chances of Romney’s collapse are about the same as that of the failure of the new iPad, which sold a staggering three millions since its debut. Sure, the country and the world could suddenly turn on it and reverse its trajectory, just as the GOP could suddenly start voting 70% for Rick Santorum or Newt Gingrich, but anyone predicting such an event is doing so on the basis of revelation not reason.
Polls close at 8 PM EST.