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The CNN Poll

Friday, December 16, 2005  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

Media types will be talking about the Hillary and Rudy pumping poll today, but here’s the key graph:

Conducted December 9-11, the telephone poll asked 393 registered voters who described themselves as Republicans and 446 registered voters who described themselves as Democrats who they were most likely to support in their respective primaries.

Registered voters aren’t likely voters. Likely voters aren’t even primary voters. Primary voters aren’t Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina or Michigan voters. Etc. Etc. Etc.

If Rudy runs, he’s one of the big four, along with Allen, McCain and Romney. And there are impossible-to-predict events ahead that will shake out those four, though McCain seems to have the most problems of the four.

Hillary (and Bill), on the other hand, are on their way to an attempted restoration. Their party is their biggest burden, and it is a huge one. Congressman Murtha as Secretary of Defense? Slow Joe Biden as Secretary of State? Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid in a position to demand things from the White House? In these years? In this war?

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