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The Case Against Military Action Against Iran

Thursday, January 19, 2006  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

Rick Moran has a thoughtful piece on the many and serious risks involved in striking at Iran’s emerging nuclear capacity:

I still think military action against the Iranians may be necessary ‘” but only if we get a clearer picture of the consequences of such actions. How much support would we have from the world? From other oil producing states? From our allies? What would Russia and China do? Would Arab governments support us?

All of these questions can only be answered and work in our favor only through careful and patient diplomacy. From my point of view, military action wouldn’t make sense unless it improved the situation. If it can’t do that, then it would only highlight our impotence when Iran eventually got the bomb. And that could be just as dangerous as anything we can imagine the mad mullahs doing to us.

Rick’s view that caution is the order of the day makes sense –unless the Iranian regime would use its nukes against Israel upon the appearance of the inevitable instability that will someday shake the unpopular regime. If you believe that the gang running Iran would not go quietly into exile, but would try and take Tel Aviv with it, then the calculation changes dramatically.

More from The Belmont Club, which points to this study.

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