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Ruffini’s Straw Poll

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Instapundit offers this anaysis of Ruffini’s August, 2005 straw poll:

RUDY GIULIANI IS KICKING BUTT in Patrick Ruffini’s 2008 Republican straw poll. What’s really interesting, though, is that the results are pretty robust notwithstanding the different flavors of blogs. Giuliani is a huge favorite among InstaPundit readers (McCain is a distant second). But he also holds the lead (albeit narrowly) among Hugh Hewitt readers, who are on the social-conservative side and who didn’t favor him last time around. He also leads among Michelle Malkin readers and among Power Line readers.

FreeRepublic readers favor Tom Tancredo, which probably says something about the GOP’s vulnerability on immigration. And Condi Rice seems to lead pretty much everywhere in the “fantasy candidate” category. I think this makes her a very plausible VP candidate.

Interestingly, I’m pretty sure that a similar poll of Democrats would show a similar lead for Hillary Clinton. Is there some sort of New York magic at work? Forget a “subway Series” — could we have a “subway election” in 2008?

Glenn is spot on, to a point. It is a Guiliani-Allen race –in the late summer of 2005– and will stay that way until the fall of 2007. Senator McCain and Senator Hagel have zero chance of being the GOP nominee because GOP primary voters will be very loyal to W, and those two senators haven’t been.

And when John Thune or Tim Pawlenty decide to test the waters, well, all bets are off.

Of course, the front runner would be Jeb but for his last name, and that doesn’t really bother the base at all. Perhaps he will change his mind…

And if Lynne said to Dick, “okay, honey, if that’s the way it has to be…”

You read it here first. Straw polls are fun, but the variables are too many to say more than “Hmmm.”

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