Rove on The President’s Deep Political Hole and the GOP’s Opportunity
Karl Rove notes in today’s Wall Street Journal Column:
Since NBC began asking the question in 1989, no president has won re-election with as many Americans-74%-saying a year before the election that the country is “on the wrong track.” Nor has any president been re-elected with so few Americans-13%-telling Gallup that they are “satisfied” with how things are going in the country. And no president has been re-elected a year after having a job-approval rating as low as Mr. Obama’s is today-43%-since Gallup began asking the question in 1945.
Since 1952, consumer-confidence numbers have been higher at this point even for presidents who failed to win re-election than they are for Mr. Obama today. He is presiding over an economy that registered a 60.9 rating in last month’s University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment report.
It’s unlikely that positive economic news will alter these numbers dramatically before next November. Through 2012, the Congressional Budget Office, the Federal Reserve and even the White House Office of Management and Budget all forecast unemployment around the current level of 9.1% and anemic growth of between 2% and 2.7%.
After all this news about the hole which the president has dug for himself and the country, Rove spends his word allocation cautioning that the GOP that it could indeed lose the White House through ineptitude, and reminding the media that the GOP primary voters are actually very satisfied with their field of candidates.
Rove does not endorse a candidate, but instead continues to prod the GOP towards using the debates ahead to focus not on each other but on Obama.
In my interview with her last night, Arizona Governor Jan Brewer promised to endorse a candidate on the day after the debate in Arizona on November 30. I expect many other key GOP elected will also begin to choose up sides before the Christmas festivities get underway. Almost all of them, and voters alike, will use the debates of November to settle on their choice, and the vast majority of the party will enthusiastically rally behind whomever is the nominee. Thus Obama’s early start to campaigning along class lines. He knows he will face a united right and a large part of the independents will simply never trust him again, so he will have to energize and mobilize the left as never before.