Redistricting and the November Vote
I spent yesterday in Phoenix to help state senate candidate Wendy Rogers raise some much needed cash and to do my bit to battle the Obama-inspired boycotts of Arizona.
Rogers, a twenty-year air force veteran and small business owner, is an amazing candidate who has used her bike through the Phoenix summer to connect with thousands of voters in her district. Numerous people have told me that they have never seen a candidate work as hard as Wendy has been working. Her ground game organization will also help retire Obamacare-enthusiast and Pelosi-pal Harry Mitchell from the Congress come November even as she adds a crucial senate seat to the GOP’s ranks in the state legislature because her state senate district overlaps with Mitchell’s Congressional district.
Down ticket races always matter, but never more than in the years that end in zero. The Washington Post reports on the high stakes of a redistricting year, and on the current balance of power in the states as the every-ten-year redrawing of federal and state electoral district lines approaches. Key graphs:
Democrats control both legislative chambers in 27 states, and Republicans control both in 14. Power is split between the two parties in eight states. Nebraska has only one chamber, and its members are technically nonpartisan.
In most states, the party that controls the political process controls the redistricting map. The goal is to create congressional districts based on voter registration data.
The power to tailor district lines to partisan demographics could offer either party an advantage of 16 to 35 seats in Congress, redistricting experts say. Gillespie estimates that legislative races in 16 states could effectively control the redrawing of districts for nearly 200 congressional seats.
Among the battleground states slated to lose or gain congressional seats, and where at least one chamber holds a fragile majority, are Michigan, Nevada, New York, Ohio, Oklahoma and Texas.
Nowhere is the intensity felt more than in Pennsylvania, which could lose a couple of seats because of population losses, making each party desperate to have a voice when the boundaries are redrawn.
Of course governors have a huge say in map drawing in most states, and the GOP is looking at momentum in their statehouse races as well as Obamanomics, Obamacare and the war on Arizona turns voters across the country more and more hostile to the president and his Chicago gang running D.C.
I will be back in Arizona to campaign for Dr. Paul Gosar on August 12, with events in both Prescott and Phoenix should any one want to help knock off yet another Pelosi-pal, lefty Ann Kirkpatrick.