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The IBD Poll Tightens –Again. Catholics Breaking Big For McCain?

Thursday, October 23, 2008  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

Tell the rotund lady to sit down a while longer. From IBD:

IBD/TIPP Tracking Poll: Day Eleven

Posted: Thursday, October 23, 2008

McCain has cut into Obama’s lead for a second day and is now just 1.1 points behind. The spread was 3.7 Wednesday and 6.0 Tuesday. The Republican is making headway with middle- and working- class voters, and has surged 10 points in two days among those earning between $30,000 and $75,000. He has also gone from an 11-point de?cit to a 9-point lead among Catholics.

My friend Doc from PowderTracks blog has argued for a while now that the sleeping giant of the Catholic vote –energized, inspired and informed by the American Catholic leadership as never before– could be the huge wild card that pollsters are simply not paying enough attention to. The huge swing noted in this poll supports his belief that the Catholic faithful are breaking decisively towards Mccain-Palin.

And there are lots and lots of Catholics in PA and other battleground states.

UPDATE: Listeneers to my show are familiar with the leadership of Denver Archbishop Charles Chaput in alerting his flock to the overarching importance of the life issue in their votes, but here’s another fine example of principled leadership on the issue, from Bishop Joseph Martino of Scranton, PA –Joe Biden’s home town.

And here’s another essay on the subjects and Catholics and the campaign from theologian and John Paul II and benedict XVI biographer George Weigel.

A Look Into The Future: “Spreading the Wealth” Meets Biden’s “Mark My Words” As Obama Repopulates the Supreme Court With Justices From The Left

Thursday, October 23, 2008  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

CitizenLink.com publishes a look at how events unfold under an Obama presidency.

I’d be willing to link to an Obama supporter’s vision of events, but the Obama campaign has carefully avoided forecasting what its objectives will be.

The presidency-as-performance-art is what has been sold, with a wide-eyed President Blink in the starring role, which is why we see the third close poll in three days: the IBD-TIPP poll, which put the gap at 3.7% with 12% undecided –following yesterday’s AP poll which pegged the race at 1 point, and the Battleground Poll of a day earlier which was also at 1 point. Most of the polls have Obama with double digit leads, but this trio of head-shakers underscore the enormous volatility in the electorate as well as the difficulty of the polling environment.

Karl Rove writes today about the various strategies open to John McCain and Sarah Palin, and his argument boils down to the three key arguments I discussed on air yesterday:

1. Obama’s judgment must be evaluated through the lens of his past decisions to associate closely with people like Bill Ayers, Tony Rezko, Jeremiah Wright and ACORN. If elected Obama will staff senior jobs in the U.S. government. These will not be your father’s Democrats, but hard-left activists from KosLand and the training fields of ACORN.

2. Obama’s plan to hike taxes across the board –including the death tax– while raising trade barriers is a recipe for taking a short and shallow recession and making it deep and long. Americans want their money back and their retirement accounts to grow again. That’s can’t be done unless the markets recover and the markets can’t thrive under huge tax burdens and declining international trade.

3. The country and the world will be an enormously more dangerous place under a President Obama, just as a fats car in the hands of a 15 year old driver is an enormously dangerous vehicle. Yesterday’s story in Haaretz confirmed Joe Biden’s warning from Sunday that the world is nearing an enormous crisis, one for which Obama is simply unprepared.

Rove writes:

Mr. McCain should also use vivid imagery to highlight concerns about the freshman Illinois senator. There are plenty of warning signs about Mr. Obama we ignore at our peril. Mr. McCain needs to explain what they are.

America’s economy got into trouble when people didn’t heed warning signs.

The Washington Post assures us this morning that “the emphasis on Obama’s friendship with [convicted felon Tony] Rezko has had little impact on voters.” I haven’t seen any of the ads the Post says have been unleashed by the GOP on the Obama-Rezko relationship, but I know that McCain-Palin needs to keep hammering on Obama’s judgment, Obama’s tax hikes, and Obama’s naivete about the world’s worst actors. If IBD-TIPP, Ap and Battleground are right –and even if the big margin polls are right– there is plenty of time to close whatever gap exists in the key states.

VDH on Obama

Thursday, October 23, 2008  |  posted by Hugh Hewitt

Victor Davis Hanson concludes a review of Senator Obama’s candidacy:

A Martian who reviewed Obama’s past elections in Illinois, the various associations he once cultivated, his brief voting record in the Senate, and the positions he originally outlined when he announced his presidential campaign might objectively conclude that America could elect either the most far left or the most unknown presidential candidate in its history.

(HT: RobinsonandLong.com).

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