Both relay the results of my reporting from four battleground states –Minnesota, Colorado, Pennsylvania and Ohio– over the past five days. There isn’t credible evidence of a significant depressed turnout among Republicans generally or evangelicals specifically. Lots of quotes from lots of self-annointed experts on turnout, and lots of secret sauce in the polling models, but no evidence of actual base voters deciding to stay home. Much contrary evidence in terms of metrics achieved and sampling of crowds and candidates.
Though the polls are all over the place, I note the latest on Tom Reynolds’ race in New York’s 26th CD. SurveyUSA now has Reynolds up three.
Three weekends of GOTV and 18 days of campaigning left, and the Dem surge is fading fast. Talk is cheap. GOTV is expensive. The Dems have the former, the Republicans the latter.
UPDATE: A Memo from Mehlman on the subject:
In recent days and weeks, the mainstream media have repeatedly claimed that the Republican base is suffering from “low voter enthusiasm.” It is easy to believe a story that is repeated so frequently, but in fact there is ample evidence to the contrary. By many measures, there are strong indications of a right-of-center base that is engaged and committed.
First, numerous polls clearly indicate near parity in intensity between Democrats and Republicans. Three recent national surveys