Mitt Romney is going to win. Big. Again.
Newt has scheduled a press conference for after the results are in, but I will be very surprised if, as the National Journal suggests, Newt is going to quit the race. He will try and retreat to the south –Georgia, Texas etc– just as Lee tried to get his armies to the south after the lines at Petersburg collapsed. Lee couldn’t make it. Newt will.
Newt isn’t a quitter. It doesn’t take much money to hang around and hope for lightning to strike.
But a double-digit win in Nevada will represent the third 2008 Blue State that Romney will have won, after New Hampshire and Florida, and the virtual tie in Iowa makes four.
Winning in the fall is all about winning back Red States-that-turned-Blue-States, not reassembling the Goldwater electoral college map.
If Newt wanted to stage a comeback-or-exit showdown, it should be in Ohio, and he’d live there for the next month. The GOP doesn’t win the White House without Ohio, so the Buckeye State is going to be the last contest that matters if Mitt Romney wins there too.
To prepare, all the GOPers should learn these names: Frank Ryan, Bill Nelson, Mike Phipps, Bernie Kosar, Paul McDonald, Tim Couch, and Colt McCoy. Bonus points for my friend the estimable Dr. Ken Polke of Westminster, CO.
Hearts and minds, Mitt, Rick and Newt. Hearts and minds.