AP via Twitchy
Here’s my Washington Examiner take on the race as the general election campaign opens.
I am one of the pundits who can only read polls through the filter of how polls have done in recent years and campaigns. Certainly there are a bunch of other center-right scribblers and talkers who are discouraged that Romney is not in the lead in some polls as the two conventions fade into memory, but they must be experience short-term memory loss.
The speed with which the MSM pick up a pro-Obama meme and spread it –e.g. “Romney is not getting traction in Ohio” which started with unnamed sources in Politico on Saturday and spread to the Wall Street Journal today without any data and with complete disregard of the Columbus Dispatch poll from August 28 and the knock-down from Tean Romney via Jen Rubin— demonstrated that once again the GOP is competing not just with the Chicago Gang but with its wholly-owned subsidiary Manhattan-Beltway media elite.
I am not surprised they try and do this, and I know they believe that spin itself impacts behavior. Spin is just what they do, like steal votes and gavel through rulings even when the whole country is watching. And MSM goes with the Chicago line because that’s what they do. The MSM is to facts as Antonio Villaraigosa is to voice votes. The prompter copy is in the story machine before the “reporter” shows up to work.
The race among likely voters across the country is tied. The impact of the awful –genuinely horrible, terrible jobs report– won’t be felt for a few more days as the news seeps into the collective consciousness.
Even then, of course the poling screens and turnout remain as broken as the exit polls, and that contributes to the MSM’s lousy reporting of the state of the race.
Here’s what you need to remind yourself of. Go to this link on polls of the Wisconsin recall for the weeks prior to the actual voting. Of the 16 polls listed, only two overshot the actual Walker total, and both of those were from an outfit I had never heard of and haven’t since –“WeAskAmerica,” and both of those by less than 1%.
By contrast 12 polls under predicted Walkers’ performance by at least 3% and 5 polls underprojected Walker’s totals by 5% or more.
Now, does anyone think that many minds changed in Wisconsin in the last four weeks of that election? Of course not. The polling was lousy for whatever reason, and that isn’t surprising. There is something broken in polls, especially polls this far out from a presidential election.
What isn’t broken is the unbroken allegiance of 95% of MSM to the president’s re-election and the herd mentality of D.C. political reporters. Focusing on unnamed “GOP sources” prattling about Ohio as opposed to the jobs report and employment in Ohio is classic misdirection from the real story which is a collaped “recovery,” much as is Obama chest-thumping on foreign policy as he allows a national security-destroying sequester to proceed.
Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan aren’t fooled or flapped. They will continue to talk jobs and the recovery that could be if the president’s assault on the private sector is ended and Obamcare repealed. It doesn’t matter if the Beltway opinion elites every figure out how the Chicago Gang makes them look the collective fool, but readers and watchers don’t have to go along with the absurdity.
Romney/Ryan had a much better convention than Obama/Biden, adn the campaign will be waged on the president’s record and his empty promises of different results from the same policies. Increasingly the public will focus not just on the “recovery-that-isn’t,” but on the immediate market consequences should Obama pul off some sort of lasting head-fake of the electorate. Voters talk to each other, and the influencers in their lives aren’t columnists or pollsters.
So, send me the names of McCain supporters who have gone over to Obama. I don’t have to point you to disappointed Obama supprters who have gone quiet or have already told you they are done. This is where the race sits and waits for the debates, even as Romney/Ryan reminds the swing states with an avalanche of ads –I have seen two in one hour in my Virginia hotel room watching the Packers lose to the Giants– of what the president has doen to the economy.
Oh, and that picture? Well, just something that you should look for in your morning paper –if you get a paper. It is a great shot of the Veep, but not one that flatters him so no one you are likely to see in the AM. But perhaps the MSM will surprise. For once.