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Mark Steyn’s Mid-term Election Prediction: Weary Fatalism Beats Disenchantment

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JC: And as we always have at this week, at this time in this segment, I believe we are now joined by Mark Steyn, Columnist To the World, and author of his new book, The [Un]documented Mark Steyn. Mark, are you on a book tour right now?

MS: I am, and it’s always reassuring when you’re being interviewed all over the map to come home to Hugh on Thursdays at 6 Eastern, 3 Pacific, and after being with a bazillion other not-so-good interviewers. But I’ll take the guest host. I’ll take Hugh’s guest host. Good to be with you, John.

JC: Okay, good to have you, Mark. So where are you? You’re on your book tour for your new book. Where are you now?

MS: Oh, I’m actually back in New Hampshire today, so I’m good, I’m glad to be back home in the heart of the north country tonight.

JC: All right. Well, good.

MS: Opposite end of the country from you, but it’s my home and I love it here.

JC: Very good. Well, and we’re going to talk about New Hampshire in a second. There is a little bit of a race going on there. But The [Un\documented Mark Steyn is your new book. I know Hugh interviewed you about it. But this, right now, it looks like it’s the Thursday before the election. But Mark, here on the Hugh Hewitt Show, we are magically transforming this, and it is now actually the Thursday after the election. So Mark Steyn, it is the Thursday after the election. Could you please give me the election results and your analysis of them?

MS: (laughing) Well, I wish I were that good that I could break it down. But I would reckon the Republicans have taken six seats plus a surprise one. I think the late breaks are breaking the Republicans’ way on that, and I think they’ll make a few gains in the House, too. So modest gains, but I would say modest gains in the House, too. And the other thing to watch, I would say, is state legislatures where it may well be looking something like 2010.

JC: Okay, now why do you think this, because if you look back at the last couple of elections, in 2012, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan were told the night before the election, their pollsters told them they’d won and to prepare their acceptance speeches. They were wrong, because the Democratic turnout model was not something that those people had polled. And then of course, in 2010 that you mentioned, there was a wave that swept across the country that most of the pollsters didn’t pick up. You’ve been, you have been touring around on you book tour. What are you feeling? What do you feel? What do you see out there?

MS: Yeah, I don’t think there’s, I certainly don’t think there’s the enthusiasm of 2010 for the very good reason that 2010 was a wave election. People were energized. It was a big popular pushback against the President. And there was, and it made so difference. They got nothing to show for that except getting audited by Lois Lerner. And so there’s not a big, organized movement here. But at the same time, everybody on the Democrat side has soured, too. And my, I do respect the Democrats just in those get out the vote operations. But if you look at what Democrat cheerleaders are saying about the President, if you look at these, the pathetic nature of the leaks, of these leaked stories in the New York Times and whatever, it’s not hard to see that actually the Democrat base is pretty depressed, too. And I would say a weary Republican fatalism actually will beat a Democrat disenchantment on Tuesday night. I’m not sure I’d put it any more enthusiastically than that. But I think weary fatalism beats disenchantment.

JC: Okay. All right. Now your home state, New Hampshire, a couple of polls have come out recently. One has Shaheen and Brown, Scott Brown tied. The other has Brown up by I think three or something like that, a couple of the polls that come out. What’s, now that’s your home base. What do you see and what do you feel there, because for the rest of the country, well, for the whole country, the polls will close first on the East Coast as they always do.

MS: Right.

JC: And we’re going to be watching New Hampshire, Virginia, North Carolina. Those states are probably going, if Democrats sweep all three, it may not be as good a night for Republicans as maybe had been thought. If Republicans sweep all three, it could be a fabulous night. So what are we going to hear from New Hampshire, do you think?

MS: No, I think you’re right. At 7:00 or 8:00 if they’re able to declare Jeanne Shaheen the winner, I think that would be a bad sign for the way that the rest of the night is going to go. New Hampshire is a hard state to poll, and it seems to me that these poll, that poll showing Brown three points up and Shaheen, another one showing Shaheen two points up, you’ve got to figure they’re actually neck and neck here, and the Democrats have a good ground game in New Hampshire. And Senator Shaheen is, does not neglect constituent service. I would, I think there is momentum with him in part because he’s found issues that resonate and that in fact, compensate for some of the problems he has being from Massachusetts and whatever. And Shaheen has behaved, has performed so dismally in the debates. And that has put her in a place she did not think she would be this near Election Day. She’s a well-prepared politician, and it is amazing to me that she did not anticipate the questions about Obama, and that she did not have some cute neutralizing line at her disposal. She’s got a fight on her hands. She can still win, but nobody thought Scott Brown really had much of a chance a few weeks ago, and he’s turned this thing around.

JC: So did I hear a prediction in there?

MS: (laughing) I was trying to actually avoid that.

JC: It is actually the…

MS: Let me just say what I would like, John. I would like Marilinda Garcia to be my next representative in Congress.

JC: See, there’s that music again, so that we’re into the Thursday after the election.

MS: Yeah.

JC: So say that again? Now about your representative?

MS: I would like Marilinda Garcia to be joining you in the House of Representatives, John. She’s running for the 2nd Congressional district, and I would love for her to be sitting next to you. So I’m going to plumb for that one, and a narrow Brown victory on the basis of Marilinda’s coattails, too.

JC: Okay, what about the states? There’s a couple of governor races to the north of you there in Massachusetts and in Connecticut, a couple governor races.

MS: Yeah, they’re to the south of me, John.

JC: South of you. South. Sorry.

MS: The only thing to the north of me is Quebec, and they don’t have governors there.

JC: Yes, yes. Okay, to the south of you, Connecticut and Massachusetts. So what do you see or feel in those races?

MS: Yeah, no, I don’t think, I would be surprised if they were to fall to the GOP’s way in Massachusetts and Connecticut. That is, you are talking, in the case of Massachusetts, basically about a one party state. And in Connecticut, you are dealing with deep blue states where the ravages of the Obama years have not yet fully bitten. So I would be surprised about that. But you know, I’m happy to be surprised if that’s the case.

JC: Okay, now while we’re talking about polls and so forth, one race no one is talking about because it’s sewed up, and I just want to get your view of what you think about this. In South Carolina, Tim Scott, the African-American Republican, is running for reelection. I’m looking at Real Clear Politics’ polls right now. The average has him up 24 points. The last couple polls had him up 29, 20 and 22. Now this is a black in South Carolina, and the President is running around making, going on primarily black radio shows saying you have to vote for me and my agenda, and blah, blah, blah. And we’re supposed to be told that in places like South Carolina that Republicans are not for black people. Yet here is a person who is a black American who is a Republican and who is probably going to win by 25 points or more in South Carolina. What does that say?

MS: Yeah, well if he had a D after his name, this would be a big story, and he’d be being profiled on the evening news all the time and the front of the New York Times. He’s winning, because he’s a real person. The President never sounded more pitiful than when he was going on Al Sharpton’s radio show For a start, he shouldn’t be being on Al Sharpton’s radio show. Al Sharpton is no more respectable than the Reverend Jeremiah Wright, and in some ways, a lot less respectable. But he sounds antiquated. When the president of the United States is going on with these clapped-out grievancemongers, professional grievancemongers, peddling a cartoon of black identity that doesn’t allow for someone like Tim Scott, which is why the only way they can acknowledge him is by saying that he’s not really black at all. And I think this is exactly, this is far better than the sort of outreach that the consultants tell you to make to this identity group or that identity group, but actually to treat people as individuals, respect them as individuals, and then see where the chips fall. And it looks like they’re falling Tim Scott’s way.

JC: It certainly does. Mark Steyn, Columnist To the World, author to the world, author of The [Un]documented Mark STeyn,, thank you very much.

End of interview.


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