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Garbage In, Garbage Out

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The latest New York Times/CBS/Quinnipiac poll is more garbage in/garbage out. In Colorado the pollsters oversampled Republicans, questioning 41 Republicans for every 32 Democrats, and in Virginia and Wisconsin the party registration of those polled wasn’t asked or wasn’t released. Useless stuff in predicting how the states will go in the fall.

To get results useful to predicting how a state will go in the fall, the sample must reflect some “best guess” about turnout. As confirmed on my show last week by Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown, these pollsters don’t do that.

RealClearPolitics’ Sean Trende argues it is too early to trust state polling anyway, and perhaps he’s right. But no one should be calling a state red or blue based on such ludicrous indifference to likely turnout.


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