The Blogging Caesar at Election Projection is one of the web’s best prognosticators. If the elction were held today, he sees the GOP losing a net four Senate seats and a net eight House seats –a tough but not horrific year, with GOP majorities intact in both houses (though the nuclear option in the event of another SCOTUS nomination would be off the table, thank you Senator McCain.)
Of course the end of August is traditionally George W. Bush’s low point on the political calender, and the money and issues advantage now begins to roll forward. As E.J.’s column this morning telegraphs, the party of weakness and retreat is clearly terrified of being correctly identified as the party of weakness and retreat. Which is why on today’s show I’ll be asking callers to help me put together my own ad by speaking various parts of the statement –true– that “Any vote for any House or Senate Democrat is a vote against victory and a vote for vulnerability. Vote for Victory. Vote Republican.” I’ll need many people to read for the ad, so call in beginning at 3:06 Pacific at 1-800-520-1234.
Stuart Rothenberg is one of those pundits predicting doom for the GOP, and he’s my guest in the first hour of the program. He sees the following races as almost certain Democratic pick-ups: Iowa 1; Colorado 7; Arizona 8.
He sees three Indiana GOP seats in almost as bad shape: 2, 8, and 9.
In the “toss-up” category he puts CN 2; FLN 22; KY 4; NM 1; NC 11; OH 15; OH 18; PA 6, PA 7; VA 2.
In the “Leans GOP but Possible Democratic pick-up” category he puts CN 4, CN 5; Ill 6; MN 6; OH 1; PA 7 and PA 8.
Interestingly he doesn’t list TX 22, the DeLay seat.
On the Senate side he sees Santoruma dn Burns as likely GOP losses, with Chafee and DeWine also in danger (please be true re: Chafee). He also lists Talent as vulnerable, but notes vulnerability as well fro Dems in NJ, MD, Washington State, though less so in MN.
I’ll go over his list with Michael Barone in hour 2. To me, this is wholly unpersuasive as to a “wave” builing against the GOP, and start with Colorado’s 7th, where Rick O’Donnell is up against a hard left Dem out of step with the district.
As I have been saying for three weeks, the punditry is deeply invested in a Bush loss in his last election cycle. It is coloring their judgment.