This poll showing Romney-Ryan surging to a 15 point lead in Florida, but the demographic weighting has The New York Times’ Nate Silver’s eyebrows lifting. Whether or not you buy Silver’s arguments, the poll’s data on seniors in Florida is enormously encouraging to Romney/Ryan, and given MSM’s willingness to blast out absurd nonsense like the Quinnipiac results for the Times earlier this month that projected a Democratic turnout advantage of 7 or more points in the Sunshine State, we should be seeing this new staggering result reported breathlessly across cable land today with the same frequency as the Times’ results were hurried into the news pool.
Or not. The MSM gets skeptical when the lead is Romney’s in any given poll and then begin to worry through the demographics and turnout model. When Obama’s got the lead in any particular poll, well, that poll gets reported without the skepticism about modeling or the explanation of weighting. That is how the game works.
This Michigan poll –same group as the Florida poll– has Romney up by nearly four there. Hmmm. The firm has historically been tied to…Democrats. The Ryan impact has been profound and it is building.
Yes, yes, yes, Obama is ahead in the new WSJ/NBC poll –by four points with 8% undecided or going elsewhere. And Akin diverted the attention from Romney/Ryan elsewhere for two news cycles.
But clear away the noise of Akin, which will now fade as he and his team reconsider the ruins of their career should he stay in much longer and as vendors conclude his checks may not clear because no one but no one will be contributing to him. The Akin implosion won’t cost Romney Missouri, and despite the desperate desire by Dems to get the race to be about abortion (too soon my lefty friends, to have worked) the August jobs number looms, and the Romney/Ryan campaign is heading into the convention in very, very good shape, which is good news because the country is limping into its election in very, very bad shape.
Friends and Allies of Rome
“It’s still about the economy, and we’re not stupid,” Mitt Romney declared in April after he rolled to five primary wins in one night. He was right then and he’s right now. The smoking ruins of the Obama presidency –David Gelernter’s term which I find so useful– may yield the news cycle for a day or two to the collapse of a Senate campaign or some other interesting shiny object, but voters know, and Romney/Ryan is rolling into its convention with extraordinary momentum.
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