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Cruz, Quayle, Generational Change in the GOP, and Another Busted BYT/CBS Poll

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The huge win by Ted Cruz Tuesday night is a cause for celebration across the country because the ranks of the senators willing to led from the front grew by one, but the influence factor went up exponentially. Ted Cruz benefitted from superb education and experience, a wonderful family, and God-given intelligence and charisma, and backed by the full array of conservative activists and opinion leaders, he demonstrated in a way that no previous primary had, that the GOP is changing rapidly into a reform party that demands of its nominees an energy and a lasting commitment to thorough-going reform. The Cruz campaign is a model for what can be done, and also a marker that the new GOP will nominate not just committed conservatives, but talented elected officials capable of leading for decades to come.

Cruz, like Marco Rubio before him, instantly becomes a national figure and a much sought-after star of the party. Democrats know that they will almost certainly face him on a national ticket in the future, or as a nominee for SCOTUS. As a Texas friend emailed this morning: “You are welcome, US.” Indeed.

Cruz told me yesterday that he won’t be taking November for granted, and it would be a great way to celebrate by sending him $50 or $100 or more to fund the fall campaign. It isn’t over until it is over, and Cruz will keep up the pace until 11/6.

Another young and rising star of the GOP is Arizona Congressman Ben Quayle, now in a tough fight with another conservative Dave Schweikert, as a result of redistricting mayhem in a deep red state by a so-called “independent” redistricting commission. Arizona Senator Jon Kyl made a choice to endorse Quayle, and made the ad below with its emphasis on chosing youth and a new generation of GOP leadership.

This was at the same time gracious and direct, and very much the same message that came out of Texas last night just as it was out of Indiana earlier this year and as it was in Utah in Mike Lee’s election in 2010. A lot of the tumult in the GOP is about generational change, which is never easy, but which can be eased when party leaders like Jon Kyl not only voluntarily retire but also point the way to the next generation of leadership.

You can support Ben Quayle’s campaign here.

Finally, there is a new New York Times/CBS/Quinippiac poll out that shows President Obama leading Mitt Romney in Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania. I was instantly skeptical because while the polls were of likely voters in those states, the article didn’t give the reader the partisan identification of the sample used in the poll. In this day and age, it is journalistic malpractice to make a reader hunt for such basic information.

So, memo to the polling sponsors: Treat your readers like adults and publish the methodology in the initial report. Not doing so is instantly understood as an effort to manipulate news.

Which this was. Here’s Ed Morrissey’s always timely analysis of the bias within the polls:

The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a 9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a 3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D 8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D 6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008’s D 7 and 2010’s D 3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.

In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm – which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.

CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.

So, bottom line, Romney is in very good shape in all three states. Reading a lefty poll is like setting up a putt: First thing you have to do is adjust your game for the slant of the green.

Today’s guests include former Senator Jim Talent to talk about the president’s reckless defense cuts, as well as the next senator from Indiana, Richard Mourdock. You can contribute to Mourdock’s campaign via my ActRight list of the top races in 2012.


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