The huge win by Ted Cruz Tuesday night is a cause for celebration across the country because the ranks of the senators willing to led from the front grew by one, but the influence factor went up exponentially. Ted Cruz benefitted from superb education and experience, a wonderful family, and God-given intelligence and charisma, and backed by the full array of conservative activists and opinion leaders, he demonstrated in a way that no previous primary had, that the GOP is changing rapidly into a reform party that demands of its nominees an energy and a lasting commitment to thorough-going reform. The Cruz campaign is a model for what can be done, and also a marker that the new GOP will nominate not just committed conservatives, but talented elected officials capable of leading for decades to come.
The CBS/NYT model has Democrats a 9 in Florida when in 2008 they were only a 3 and an even split in the 2010 midterms. Ohio’s sample has exactly the split in 2008 (D 8), which is nine points better than Democrats did in the midterms. Pennsylvania’s numbers (D 6) come closest to a rational predictive model, somewhere between 2008’s D 7 and 2010’s D 3, but still looking mighty optimistic for Democratic turnout.
In other words, these polls are entirely predictive if one believes that Democrats will outperform their turnout models from the 2008 election in Florida and Ohio. That would require a huge boost in Democratic enthusiasm and a sharp dropoff in Republican enthusiasm – which is exactly the opposite that Gallup found last week.
CBS/NYT polling: New partner … same issues.So, bottom line, Romney is in very good shape in all three states. Reading a lefty poll is like setting up a putt: First thing you have to do is adjust your game for the slant of the green.Today’s guests include former Senator Jim Talent to talk about the president’s reckless defense cuts, as well as the next senator from Indiana, Richard Mourdock. You can contribute to Mourdock’s campaign via my ActRight list of the top races in 2012.
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Cruz, Quayle, Generational Change in the GOP, and Another Busted BYT/CBS Poll