Word From Middle Cheese: Reasons for Romptimism
Word from Middle Cheese, my source from 2004 now affiliated with Team Romney:
I’ve become more optimistic in the past 24-48 hours about Romney’s chances in California.
Multiple data sources, including both public and internal polling, now show a clear trend for Mitt, and possibly a very sharp one. Both national and local conservative talk radio bashing McCain is have an impact on California GOP primary voters, who tend to be very conservative. I think I’m comfortable saying now that he could win about 2/3 of the districts in California, which would also give him the bonus delegates and the narrative of winning the state. I didn’t think this was likely at all 24-48 hours ago.
He also notes a big crowd at the Romney event in Long Beach.
If California comes together for Romney in the final 48 hours, it will be a remarkable story of two last second back-from-the-grave moments in his campaign. Losing Michigan would have been an effective nail in the coffin, and much of last week looked gloomy for Romney. Maybe the post-Super-Tuesday race will be a marathon on both sides…
It was a large and boisterous crowd in Long Beach, and the California GOP is made up of conservative activists. The Huckabee vote has dwindled as it became apparent the only choice for today at least is McCain-Arnold or Romney, and the immigration issue remains a vote driver that burdens McCain despite a week of “trust me on the border” ads that the McCain campaign ran on many stations –including mine– that pledged that McCain had heard the message.
A win in California propels the race to at least Ohio and Texas in early March and could indeed turn it decisively against McCain, which is why I’ll start at 3 PM Pacific today, and won’t wrap up until 10 PM, by which time the trend in the Golden State will be clear.