Based on current polling and past electoral performance, Obama has 19 states plus the District of Columbia – 247 electoral votes total – solidly behind him or leaning that way. Romney has 23 safe or leaning states, or 191 electoral votes.
That leaves eight states – Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire, Ohio, Iowa, Colorado and Nevada – with 100 electoral votes as the central battlegrounds.
So Obama could lose both Ohio and Florida and still have multiple paths to 270. But if Romney loses Florida, his only shot at winning would be to pick up a big state that hasn’t voted for a Republican president in years, such as Michigan or Pennsylvania.