Hewitt Blog

I will follow the regular broadcast with three hours of news from and analysis about Florida tonight.

The special will be carried on most of my regular stations as well as many other affiliates of the Salem Radio Network.

And if you'd like to listen via your iPad or iPhone, there's a new app for the show waiting for you to download.

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The winner of tonight's primary in Florida will almost certainly be the GOP nominee, and that winner will almost certainly be Mitt Romney.

The race will not be "over" since both Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum promise to press on, and we know for a fact that Ron Paul will who was never running to win in any event.

Not "over," but "decided."  Romney's InTrade number right now is at an 88% probability of being the GOP nominee.  A safe could still fall on him, I suppose, but barring that or its political equivalent, it will be decided if the results tonight are in line with the polling.

A big win will shatter Newt's dream, and no amount of super Pac money will resurrect it a third time. Carrying on with the politics of personal destruction would, however, hurt a very good brand and one that could easily be in the front ranks of a new conservative revolution designed to repair the shattering effects of four years of Obama misrule. 

Rick Santorum has a better argument for carrying on.  Newt got his one-on-one time in the ring with Mitt Romney, and lost decisively, three out of four rounds, with a knockout apparently forming up in Florida tonight. 

Santorum by contrast was denied the fair fruits of his Iowa win and deserves a one on one shot with Romney, perhaps in Santorum friendly Missouri or even Ohio.  Santorum is also plausible though not likely as a Vice Presidential pick, and President Obama's decision to attack every Catholic institution in America via the new HHS regulations has handed Santorum an issue uniquely suited to the senator's strengths.  Watch and see if the individual contributions of $25, $50 and $100 don't continue to flow into RickSantorum.com this week and next.

Governor Romney will not make the mistake of turning away from the primary challenges until he has amassed the delegates he needs, but the map and the math overwhelmingly favor his nomination now.  His battling back after South Carolina has honed his political game and sharpened his skills and the skills of his team, all very good things.

Obama will be a lot rougher than Newt, but getting ready for that battle via the Florida confrontation has been a very good thing indeed.

"Wanting your party’s candidate to demonstrate an instinct for the jugular is a leadership quality that would never turn up in polling data or in focus-group discussions," writes John Podhoretz in this morning's New York Post. "People know better than to say they want to know their guy can be an SOB when necessary, just as most politicians know it’s a problem if they come across as an unmitigated SOB."

John continues:

But the plain truth is that the willingness to confront a rival directly while looking him straight in the eye and saying some pretty harsh things, and the ability to withstand the counterattack and keep on with the assault, are qualities of toughness and perseverance every successful major politician must demonstrate.

After all, if Romney isn’t tough enough to take Gingrich down, how can he hope to do the same to Barack Obama, who will have somewhere between $500 million and $1 billion to use to blacken the name and reputation of the eventual Republican nominee?

Read the whole thing, because John is right, as usual.  These ten days in Florida have been tough on everyone, but very good for Team Romney, and tonight's speech by the governor should reflect on how these past days show exactly what the former Massachusetts governor will be willing to do when the going gets rough in the summer and fall --which is fight back and trade blow for blow.

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Read the letter to all Catholics in the Diocese of Phoenix from Bishop Thomas J. Olmsted.  Similar letters went out in most of the American dioceses over the weekend. Other reactions from other bishops are cataloged here.

Archbishop Charles Chaput of Philadelphia (pictured above) said yesterday that "Bishops can’t tell politicians what to do, but Catholic voters can." 

I read Bishop Olmsted's letter on air yesterday, and concluded that I do not see how a Catholic can in good conscience vote for President Obama, contribute to his campaign, or indeed vote for or contribute to any Democrat who is supporting the president in Congress.  Any such vote or contribution would be to the support of candidates seeking to destroy the religious freedom of Catholics in America.  The HHS regulations referenced by the Bishop are a direct assault on religious freedom, and one aimed specifically at Roman Catholics.  Either you defend your Church or you should leave it.

Dear Brothers and Sisters in Christ:

I write to you concerning an alarming and serious matter that negatively impacts the Church in the United States directly, and that strikes at the fundamental right to religious liberty for all citizens of any faith. The federal government, which claims to be “of, by, and for the people,” has just dealt a heavy blow to almost a quarter of those people - the Catholic population - and to the millions more who are served by the Catholic faithful.

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services announced last week that almost all employers, including Catholic employers, will be forced to offer their employees’ health coverage that includes sterilization, abortion- inducing drugs, and contraception. Almost all health insurers will be forced to include those “services” in the insurance policies they write. Almost all individuals will be forced to buy that coverage as a part of their health insurance plans.
In so ruling, the Administration has cast aside the First Amendment to the Constitution of the United States, denying to Catholics our Nation’s first and most fundamental freedom, that of religious liberty. As a result, unless the rule is overturned, we Catholics will be compelled either to violate our consciences, or to drop health coverage for our employees (and suffer the penalties for doing so). The Administration’s sole concession was to give our institutions one year to comply.

We cannot - we will not - comply with this unjust law. People of faith cannot be made second class citizens. We are already joined by our brothers and sisters of all faiths and many others of good will in this important effort to regain our religious freedom. Our parents and grandparents did not come to these shores to help build America’s cities and towns, its infrastructure and institutions, its enterprise and culture, only to have their posterity stripped of their God given rights. In generations past, the Church has always been able to count on the faithful to stand up and protect her sacred rights and duties. I hope and trust she can count on this generation of Catholics to do the same. Our children and grandchildren deserve nothing less.

Therefore, I would ask of you two things. First, commit ourselves to prayer and fasting that wisdom and justice may prevail, and religious liberty may be restored. Pray the rosary, asking Our Lady of the Immaculate Conception, Patroness of our Nation, to intercede for us. Without God, we can do nothing; with God, nothing is impossible. Second, I recommend visiting www.usccb.org/conscience, to learn more about this severe assault on religious liberty, and how to contact Congress in support of legislation that would reverse the Administration’s decision.

United in prayer and in confidence in God’s mercy, I remain Sincerely yours in Christ,

Thomas J. Olmsted Bishop of Phoenix

 

This Week surveys all the theories behind Newt's collapse and Mitt's resurgence and collects them in this article.

The Los Angeles Times headlines Romney's surge this morning, and one poll this morning puts his lead in the Sunshine state at 14 points though another has the lead at a mere 5 points.

Early voting in Florida surged just as Romney did.    600,000 Floridians have already voted, matching South Carolina's total vote.

Robert C. O'Brien, a Romney adviser on national security matters, reviews the contests ahead in February.

Oh, and courtesy of Instapundit's Things You May Have Missed This Weekend, here's the bottom line on Scott Walker's reforms in Wisconsin: They are working.


 

The Monday column from Clark Judge:

SOTU’s Biggest Misstatement – How We Got in This Economic Mess, and How We Get Out
By Clark S. Judge: Managing Director, White House Writers Group, Inc.; chairman, Pacific Research Institute
 
Let’s call it a misstatement.  
 
Among the most complete – and consequential – misstatements in President Obama’s State of the Union Address was that the financial crisis and current Great Recession were products of Reagan era policies.  Democrats and their media friends presented this conclusion as a given. But it is wrong and not calling them on it opens the door for making our economic troubles much worse.
 
Not that Reagan era policies have been followed to the “T” since the 40th president left office.
 
The Reagan policy package was simple: lower tax rates, cuts in domestic discretionary spending, putting entitlements (Social Security was the only problematic one in the 1980s) on a self-sustaining footing for the next quarter century, broadly reduced regulation (in fairness, started under Carter), and more free and open trade.
 
Since Mr. Reagan left office we have seen the number of tax rates proliferate and the marginal rate rise well above where it was on Inauguration Day 1989.  Domestic discretionary spending has risen alarmingly.  No attention has been given to the financial sustainability of entitlements, even as a crisis in funding gathers that dwarfs anything the national government has ever faced. Regulations have proliferated throughout the economy, including environmental and product regulation as well as in Sarbaynes-Oxley before Mr. Obama took offices and even more at EPA as well as in Obamacare and Dodd-Frank since.  The push for more open global trade has stalled and even reversed.
 

 Read More...

My new Washington Examiner argues that folks worried about the damage done by the GOP primaries should be looking at the 1952 and 1980 election precedents.

The column also argues that if Mitt Romney wins going away on Tuesday night the race night not be over, but it will be decided.  This clip from Brietbart.tv is another body blow to the Gingrich effort. "There must be 'must carry'..." is clearly an endorsement of a federal mandate, and unless Newt defined "must carry" as something other than a federal mandate, it will hard to argue that he is the right person to carry the Obamacare repeal effort.

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The Sunday polls out of Florida have Mitt Romney leading Newt Gingrich by margins of 11 and 16 points, as the former Massachusetts governor continues to widen his lead over the former Speaker.

Newt got some much needed help from Sarah Palin and Herman Cain, but it has come too late because Newt built his candidacy on a promise built on a premise, both of which have been shattered this past week.

The promise was that he could thrash President Obama in the debates and the premise is that there would be many debates just like the one in which he successfully jammed John King.

Of course Newt's two bad debates this week (with Thursday's being especially lousy) blew up the foundation for Newt's campaign, and while the Speaker and his die-hard supporters want to blame various factors --the crowd, Romney's claims etc-- the average Florida voter got two previews of coming attractions and are judging the Speaker according to what they saw not by what he says they should have seen.  Besting one CNN anchor only to be bested by another isn't a confidence booster, especially when Mitt Romney is pummeling you throughout both of the most recent and relevant showdowns. 

I have been saying since South Carolina that Florida will decide the nomination barring a huge misstep by or revelation about its winner.  If Romney banks a double-digit win in the one of the handful of absolutely key states to the fall's election, it would take a miracle for Newt to come back a third time, and as Daniel Webster said of the Constitution, "Miracles do not cluster."  Newt's already had two.


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I didn't watch the debate last night, having long ago committed to an event honoring the 200th anniversary of newspapers in Connecticut Western Reserve. By the time I got back from the event, the debate was over, and so I consulted my Twitter feed of dozens of opinion mavens and discovered that Rick Santorum had a very good night, Romney a strong one, and that Gingrich had endured by far his worst debate performance.  The chattering class issued a collective assessment that Newt had been thrashed. 

Given that both the new Sunshine State and Qunnipiac polls put Romney ahead by 9 points prior to the debate, and given as well that Romney is widely acknowledged to have a lead in the absentees and early voting, Florida is shaping up as a win for Romney though not perhaps by more than a few points given the volatility of the contest.

I said on Monday that the winner of Florida would be the GOP nominee, and that was when Gingrich was 9 points ahead.  It seems as though Florida understands its crucial position and perhaps decisive influence, and voters are paying attention and are energized.  Given the state's enormous importance in the fall, this is a great place to have such a showdown, and while the race won't be over on Wednesday morning, it will almost certainly have been decided by then, barring a meltdown by or a revelation about the winner.

In Ohio the local GOP is very excited about having the Buckeye State finally matter to a GOP nomination via its vote on Super Tuesday.  The chairman of the Cuyahoga County Republican Party, Rob Frost, came by my Cleveland affiliate's studios during Wednesday's program  to talk about the energy in the grassroots, and the great campaign shaping up to put Ohio Treasurer Josh Mandel into the Senate.  The party's annual Lincoln Dinner is February 16.  The guest of honor?  Mitt Romney.  Today, judging solely from the reflected assessments of the media elites both right and left, that was a very good call by the Committee when it was made months ago.

Back to California so traveling and off the air today.  Breitbart.tv's Larry O'Connor fills in for me today, and despite his Michigan roots, he appears able to handle the dials and use complete sentences.  Thanks to Larry and to all those twittering pundits who watched the debate so I wouldn't have to.

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InsiderAdvantage has Romney surging in Florida. 

And this survey argues for Romney's strength in the general against Obama in the Sunshine State.

Grist for HotAir.com's Ed Morrissey who is sitting in for me today.

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My Townhall.com column this morning looks at the DNCs Big Labor's attempt to take Mitt Romney off the board in Florida.  We used to call such things "dirty tricks," but these days the attempt to manipulate the other side's nominee is acceptable to MSM.  What would Ed Muskie say.

I asked Mitt Romney about the unions campaign against him (and thus for Newt Gingrich) in the course of an interview on Wednesday's program:

HH: We begin now with Governor Romney. Welcome back, good to talk to you. 

MR: Thanks, Hugh, good to be with you this evening.

HH: You know, Governor, a lot of my callers raise the passion question. They want to know if Mitt Romney will passionately take it to President Obama. I want to frame it this way. Yesterday, SEAL Team 2 brought off this amazing rescue, but it’s only because they’ve got this amazing Department of Defense behind them. And the President wants to cut that dramatically. Will you passionately fight for the military if you’re the nominee?

MR: I will not only passionately fight, but I will succeed in protecting our military. I do not want to cut our military base budget for the current, about 4% of the GDP that it is. Look, our Navy is smaller than at any time since 1917, our Air Force is older and smaller than any time since it was founded. We’ve got too few active duty personnel. We’re not doing the right job for our veterans. We really can’t afford, and we should not shrink our military commitment. And unlike this president, I will not cut our military budget. I will preserve it, and maintain our military might.

HH: Second question in this regard, right now, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees are spending a million bucks against you. SEIU, the most radical of the unions, almost as much against you. It’s astonishing. The Democrats are trying to take you off the board. In ’72, they called this dirty tricks when Nixon did it against Muskie. But will you, Governor Romney, be battling these public employee unions in the way that people want to see fire and passion?

MR: Well, there’s no question but that these unions do not want to see me as the next president. They don’t want to see me as the nominee, because they know I can beat President Obama. So here in Florida, which is the next contest state, you’re right. They’re spending about a million dollars in negative ads against me. And they’re not doing that against Speaker Gingrich. They’re doing it against me. And the reason they’re doing that, of course, is as I just described, and also the fact that I have a record of taking on these unions. In my state, I said look, you guys, we’re not going to grow your compensation in the unions at a level that’s above what the state can afford. And we held, as I recall, we held the compensations at 2% per year. I’ll go after these guys. We have, in my view, a real problem with unions having put in place these massive pensions and health benefits that we cannot possibly sustain. I salute Governor Walker of Wisconsin, Governor Kasich of Ohio, I’m trying to think of all the names, of course, Chris Christie in New Jersey. These guys have been heroic. Governor Rick Snyder in Michigan, these guys are out there battling. We’re going to have to rein in the excesses of these unions, or they will completely drown our states in red ink.

HH: And Governor, last question, John Hood and others, John Hood at National Review, said when your taxes came out, there was an opportunity to point out to people this nonsense about effective rates, that all that money that you’re paying taxes on at the investment rate had been taxed before. Did you miss an opportunity to teach people about how we tax and tax and tax again?

MR: Well actually, each interview I’ve had, I have said that exact point. I was on last night with Brian Williams on NBC, and he said gee, your tax rate’s only 15%. And I said no, actually, you realize that there are two levels of taxation on capital. One is at the corporate level, where it’s taxed at 35%, and the other’s at the individual level in dividends, where it’s taxed at 15%. So the combined rate is 45-50%. And I’ve said the same thing with Sean Hannity a little earlier on Fox. So every occasion I get, I remind people of that fact. It’s going to be a constant battle, of course, because the Democrats, and interestingly, my own Republican opponents, Speaker Gingrich, they go after me for paying a low tax rate. It’s like guys, don’t you understand it’s being taxed once at the corporate level first? So I’ll keep on handling that and battling that, Hugh.

HH: Governor Romney, thanks for joining us. We’ll talk to you after the debate next week, and good luck, we’ll talk to you then.

End of interview.





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