Hewitt Blog

Florida's presidential primary is January 31rst, and it is a "closed" primary, meaning only Republicans can vote for the would-be nominees.

Registration for the primary closes January 3, so any last ditch efforts to sign up the identified supporters will have to come in a hurry.

630,000 requests for absentees have already been received and begin to hit the mails tomorrow, so the race is very much on in the Sunshine State.  Which candidates are peaking and which declining as the votes start being cast, and not just in Iowa and New hampshire?

With the news cycle being harsh on Newt (Pearl Harbor?) and on Ron Paul ("The white supremacists, survivalists and anti-Zionists who have rallied behind his candidacy have not exactly been warmly welcomed"), what may have been overlooked is the sit-down Mitt Romney had with two of the Wall Street Journal's editorial board, Paul Gigot and Joseph Rago.  The Journal's editorial page has been no friend to Romney this cycle, and indeed its increasingly harsh treatment of mainstream conservatives like California Congressman John Campbell has led many to a assume that Mr. Gigot has turned the reins over to a new generation of purists that Vermont Royster or Robert Bartley might find, well, unusual in their zeal for throwing stones at what used to be called midwestern Republicanism (not Rockefeller Republicans, mind-you, but good, old-fashioned center-right main street common sense Republicanism.)  It is hard to find a more competent murderers' row of pundits than Gigot, Dan Henninger and Bret Stevens, but the asperity directed at Romney, Campbell and others in the unsigned missives of 2011 raised many eyebrows.  The conversation with Romney suggests that hard but fair questions will be raised in the year ahead.  Good.  The flagship of conservative editorial thought should be surrounded by the fleet, not far out in front of it.

One other post-Christmas note:

One of the WSJ editorial board's favorites, New Jersey's Scott Garrett, finds himself in a redistricting-driven struggle in 2012.  Mr. Garrett has set himself up as the enemy of the new home owner and of home builders and the 30 year mortgage, and it will be interesting to see if the membership of the NAHB decides that he is one Republican they'd rather see retired than re-elected.  Some free market-purists like Mr. Garrett want no involvement of the government in home loans, but most Americans still think of the 30 year government-backed mortgage as the vehicle through which the American dream is best achieved.  Congressman Garrett may want to become the next Ron Paul, but most voters aren't marching for an end to government's role in home finance, but for common sense solutions that free up lending to responsible borrowers.

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"Kissing the Face of God" by Morgan Weistling

 

The sense had been growing that the GOP race was effectively over barring a major surprise in Iowa from Rick Perry or Rick Santorum, but this news out of Virginia is very revealing about the lack of general election preparedness of every organization except Team Romney.  The only thing that the president has going for him is a political organization honed by a half-dozen years in the field and a well-refined ruthlessness when it comes to tactics.  It is hard to imagine an organization that cannot gather 10,000 signatures over many months staying on the field with the Chicago gang much less outmaneuvering them in the week to week battles of the year ahead.

Fence sitters among the electeds who were waiting to see if there would be a prolonged contest have got to be spending their Christmas Eves wrapping gifts and considering that Mitt Romney has this campaign in hand and that a quick conclusion to the primary season would be in the interests of everyone.  Watch for endorsements next week before Iowa caucuses and certainly before New Hampshire votes.

The Los Angeles Times' Maeve reston, btw, had this piece on the Romney family yesterday.  If in fact the former Massachusetts governor rolls up the nomination with a series of early wins, this article suggests that Chicago will have to shut down the oppo office devoted to personal failings. 

UPDATE: Those complaining about VA ballot rules or technicalities ought to look up the name Alice Palmer.  Chicago rules don't include Mulligans.

And thanks to The Drudge Report for a red letter day.

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There is a lot of buzz this morning that Speaker Boehner won't survive the next meeting of the GOP caucus, but he is lucky that the troops have scattered and that Christmas cheer will first obscure and then Iowa-New Hampshire frenzy will erase memory of this week's utter smash-up.  The GOP-electeds not closely aligned with the Speaker and every one of the would-be nominees have to be afraid of a 2012 spent worrying about another spectacular train wreck engineered by the cracker-jack strategy and communications team around the Speaker's office, but whether there are enough numbers for Eric Cantor to pull off the necessary switch remains to be seen.  Think of the difference between Michael Steel and Reince Preibus and you get just a hint of the way it could be if the GOP House majority had a clue about messaging and strategy.  It is widely agreed that the Speaker is a nice guy and a wonderful, loyal friend, but the election of 2012 is about the future of the country, and the leader of the House has to know how to lead during such a crucial moment.  It would take exactly one ill-timed episode like this week to crater the effort to remove the president next October.

"The Democrats set a trap and the Republicans walked right into it," Charles Krauthammer writes this morning and as usual he is exactly right.  Any reason to believe the same Speaker supported by the same staff won't do the same thing ten months from now?

My Townhall.com column this morning addresses the latest undeniable proof that a vote for Ron Paul is a morally bankrupt act.  Indulging trutherism should be up there with embracing any other form of unacceptable extremism in America.  Caucus goers who stand for Ron Paul are also standing up for the idea that the American government executed 3,000 of its own people. 

Today's radio show is a replay of my last interview with the late Christopher Hitchens, a three hour exploration of his autobiography Hitch22, which first aired in July 2010, after his diagnosis and original round of treatment for cancer.  The Hitch archive from my show is up to 60 chats, but this is the most comprehensive review of his life and work, and I hope you take time to enjoy listening to one of the great workers in words of our time.

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With that line, the reader must finally understand that George Will is no mere opponent of Newt Gingrich, but rather a columnist-with-a-mission, and that mission is the deflation of the Newt bubble.  If the Newt campaign was a hot air balloon, Will's columns have been highly accurate cannonry trained on and firing at will for the past few weeks.  Had Will fired alone, Newt might have hung on in Iowa and surged a bit in New Hampshire.  But Will had many allies in the effort to turn back Newt, and most of them weren't running for president.  So the former Speaker is retreating to South Carolina and hoping for something like a personal Battle of the Cowpens to happen there.  Energy and money don't follow candidates on the decline, however.  You don't have to win, but you do have to rise.  Newt is falling, fast. 

As is Ron Paul, whose outburst at Michele Bachmann opened the eyes of some his faithful, and his grouchy exit from a CNN sit-down did the same for more.  Racist newsletters, old or new, are fair game in a campaign for someone who really wants to win the Iowa caucuses.  Iowa voters somewhat attached to Paul have to wonder if the free ride he has gotten is because of the unpleasantness that would attach to serious scrutiny of the Congressman's long history on the fringes of the GOP.

Romney is executing his plan and getting his summer-fall responses in order, while keeping an eye on the field to see who surges in the next ten days, camouflaged perhaps by caroling and sugar cookie-induced dozing.  I had both Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann on yesterday's program, Jon Huntsman on Tuesday's show, and hope to have Rick Perry and Newt on today's broadcast, but it seems like all the energy is with Rick Santorum, and those voters not yet decided in Iowa will land on his square or Romney's.  A Romney-Santorum showdown in the Granite State would be an interesting collision of conservative and center-right, of long-time conservative D.C. smarts v. the private sector.

Few if any in the Manhattan-Beltway media elite think much of Santorum.  One reason to cheer a strong showing by him in Iowa would be the pleasure of adding yet another line to their long indictment of cluelessness on all things conservative.

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Quite a Christmas week show today.

Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann join me for reports from Iowa.

Congressmen Jeb Hensarling and John Campbell provide updates on what the Congress is --or is not-- doing on various matters.

Two entrepreneurs join me to talk about plans for growth in 2012 --Kirk Winslow who is a consultant on business ethics and Jeff Clinard,  a comedian turned coffee impresario and voice of thePortola Coffee Lab in Costa Mesa California. 

And in hour three a conversation with Lt. Col. David Grossman, one of the country's leading authorities on mass violence, whose new DVD series Bulletproof Mind ought to be required viewing by every school administrator in the country --at every level-- as well as every public safety department across the land.

 

Former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum scored big endorsements in Iowa Tuesday when evangelical activists Bob Vander Plaats and Chuck Hurley urged conservative Christians to throw their weight begin Santorum in the caucuses.  Santorum has been building support and organization in Iowa for months, and his steady-does-it approach is paying off in the closing days of the Iowa campaign.

Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman was a guest on my show today and discussed the leadership transition in North Korea and the dangers it presents, as well as some practical politics including Ron Paul's slam on Michele Bachmann as a hater of Muslims.  "[I]t debases the whole political debate," Huntsman said, and of course he is right.  Huntsman also distanced himself from Gingrich's attacks on the federal courts.  The transcript of the interview is here.

Newt also figures in this "report" from the Des Moines Register Iowa Caucuses blog.  The headline announces "Newt Gingrich to gay Iowan: Vote for Obama."  The story doesn't suggest the reporter actually heard the exchange.  The report identifies the man as a Democrat but it does not quote Gingrich on the exchange if any exchange even happened.  If the voter declared himself a gay man, a Democrat, and a supporter of same sex marriage and Newt declared "then your candidate is Obama," that is hardly controversial, anti-gay or news of any sort.  The silly season is descending when the collision of campaign inactivity and Christmas shopping drives reporters to invent angles rather than simply taking off a couple of days.

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If anyone in your family loves history, the Civil War, or simply a great and suspense-filledl read, order Midnight Rising: John Brown and the Raid that Started the Civil War by Tony Horwitz.


This riveting account of a successful act of domestic terrorism committed by a fanatic who achieved more than he ever dared dream in his defeat opens the years before the Civil War to the non-specialist as few books about the War ever attempt to do.

And for the motorcycle adventurer in your life --or even the would-be adventurer who probably couldn't get the kickstand to go up-- get a copy of the charming There & Back Again To See How Far It Is,  the account of an Englishman lost (sort-of) in America atop his new Harley.  Very few people get to live their Hog fantasy.  Tim Watson did, and with a very English sense of humor, lays out the path you or you friend might want to follow.



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The weekly column from Clark Judge:

Can the Iowa Caucuses be Far Behind?
By Clark S. Judge: managing director, White House Writers Group, Inc.; chairman, Pacific Research Institute
 
If Christmas is here, can the Iowa caucuses be far behind?  What are the candidate’s prospects, weeks before the voting begins? You have heard about ups and downs in the major polls.  Following is data on Romney, Gingrich and Perry you have probably not heard about, as well an item on Ron Paul.
 
Romney-Gingrich-Perry Poll:
In this hard-to-predict GOP primary season, among the most interesting polls are coming out of a husband-wife team, Adam and Sabrina Schaeffer.  He holds a PhD in American politics, she a masters in American history, both from the University of Virginia.  She is a long-time director in the firm I head.
 
Through their own firm, Evolving Strategies ( www.evolving-strategies.com), these two have been experimenting with Internet-based, low-budget ways to test not just the state of opinion but the dynamics.  Using control groups as well as groups that they expose to differing lines of competing arguments and mixes of competing ads, they try to duplicate the back and forth of campaign debate. They ask not who is up today, but who can be up tomorrow – and whose star will fade, if he doesn’t do something fast?
 

 Read More...

Before the voting begins, it makes sense to look past the president and his would-be challengers to the bigger question of what makes a great statesman.

My longtime friend and now president of Hillsdale College, Dr. Larry Arnn, will join me today to do just that. 

For the entire show.  From Pericles to Reagan, Dr. Arnn will survey a dozen of history's greatest leaders while answering the questions of what and why made them great.

Hillsdale has launched a Graduate School in Statesmanship, so it makes sense to pose these questions to Dr. Arnn, and to do so before the GOP makes its choice, or the country turn to the evaluation of President Obama in the fall.

The transcript of our conversation is available here.

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