Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 12:08 AM


 
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 10:42 PM

In 1980 George H.W. Bush collected 33,530 votes in the Iowa caucuses, and Ronald Reagan bagged 31,348. 

Reagan went on to win the New Hampshire primary, the Republican nomination and 44 states in the fall wipe-out of Jimmy Carter.  I suspect you will that a lot from Team Romney this week.

From Rick Santorum you will continue to hear a full throated defense of traditional conservatism and a demand for credentials in the movement.  He too will be fighting for the Ronald Reagan mantle.

Incredibly the GOP has arranged to have ABC hosting the key debate on Saturday night before next Tuesday's voting.  Who's going to claim to have paid for those microphones.

Both Santorum and Romney can be pleased with tonight's results, the former because he is the alternative to Romney and the latter because his show-down is with an underfunded candidate with yet-to-be-proven appeal to moderates.

The big winner is political media.  It could have been over.  It isn't. 

The big loser is Ron Paul.  He put all his chips on the table in Iowa, and he lost.

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Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 4:31 PM

I wil be on the air for six hours today, from 6 PM to midnight EST, with a line-up of guests (see below) which is the rival of any network coverage anywhere.  Listen online via say WRC 1260, 710 KNUSKKNT 960 or 870 KRLA if you are not in a market carrying the special broadcast.

I will also be keeping open our Salvation Army Red Kettle campaign throughout the six hours to give you one last chance this holiday season to donate to America's most effective anti-poverty agency, and if you wish, to bid for the co-host slot for an entire show which I will tweak to your theme or business.  You want to sell some cars, then sit in for a three hour show and we will plug your dealerships relentlessly.  Want to promote a cause or a candidate, same deal.  Win the auction and you are co-host for a day with a great deal of content control.  I offered one other co-host slot last week and it fetched $15,002 so I hope to beat that record today/tonight, but every dollar counts in the Red Kettle campaign.  (Just hit the banner ad to your right.)

The broadcast today will feature: The Weekly Standard's Fred Barnes, Politico's John Harris and Mike Allen, The Washington Examiner's Michael Barone, David Freddoso, and Mark Tapscott, the National Review's Rich Lowry, K-Lo, Robert Costa and Jim Geraghty, The Daily Caller's Mary Katharine Ham, Breitbart's Larry O'Connor, Hot Air's Ed Morrissey and of course Townhall's Guy Benson, repeatedly.  My colleagues Mike Gallagher, Dennis Prager and Michael Medved will also be stopping by to offer their analysis of the run-up and the results from Iowa.

Quite a lot of politics, and I hope quite a lot of coin in the kettle for The Salvation Army as well.


 
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 12:41 PM

Rick Santorum Speaking - H 2012

That's the question Politico's Roger Simon poses.

A first or second place tonight makes the former Pennsylvania senator the not-Romney in New Hampshire, and it won't take a lot of money given the earned media to compete there or in South Carolina.  Three strong finishes would give RickSantorum.com the time to build a bank account for Florida via thousands of small donors

Money won't decide the GOP nomination.  As always, the GOP primary electorate will nominate the most conservative candidate it collectively concludes can win in November.  This favors previous candidates like Romney (see below) but it factors in ideas, and a Romney-Santorum duel like the Ford-Reagan campaign of 1976 is very possible over many states if Santorum combines a strong showing tonight with another one next week.


 
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 10:19 AM


 
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:32 AM

http://mittromneycentral.com/uploads/227377780-30103622.jpg


Kimberly Strassel's Wall Street Journal column, "Mr. Good Enough," outlines the argument that the GOP is "settling" for Mitt Romney.  She names five other GOPers who might have gotten into the race and beaten Romney --Jeb Bush, Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Marco Rubio-- and to that list she could have added Sarah Palin, John Thune and Haley Barbour and might also have noted that Tim Pawlenty ought to have hung for a while longer.

Each of those might have won the nomination, but each of them made a calculation that they would not run, and Romney's formidable skills as a candidate had a lot to do with the field being cleared.  Those GOP voters who would have preferred one of the above to run are not going to be as enthusiastic about Romney as they would have been had their own preferred candidate had run, but clearing most of the field of most of the formidable opposition tells us something of Romney's strengths as perceived by his strongest competitors.  They didn't want to get in the ring.  Many had very good reasons not to, but they are professionals, and professionals know when to fold the hand.

I go back to McCain campaign manager Steve Schmidt's comment to me in a 2009 interview.

HH: Let me ask you just as a professional, not your hope for, not your wishes and dreams, who would you have to predict right now is going to be the Republican nominee in 2012?

SS: If I had to bet money on it, if I had to bet money on it today, you’d have to say that the people that I think look very good, very strong right now are Governor Romney, Governor Huntsman. I think Newt Gingrich, should he run, is going to be a very formidable, very formidable candidate. But the history of the Republican Party nominating process is that it almost always goes to someone who’s been around the track once before. And in that instance, in this instance, it would be Governor Romney. I thought he was a very scary opponent looking from the other side of the table in that he was almost like a learning organism at the end. He just kept getting better week by week by week, and kept becoming stronger. And I think these national campaigns are very unique, and I think most people learn a great deal with they go through them. And I think one of the reasons that President Bush was able to make it through the process the first time, unlike most people on the Republican side, is because he had been up close and personal through a couple of national races. And I think Mitt Romney is a candidate, is a far stronger candidate, prospectively, for the ’12 race because of his experience in ’08 than he was heading into the ’08 race.

If he wins tonight, Mitt Romney will almost certainly be the nominee.  Indeed if he finishes in the top three and wins next week in New Hampshire, he will almost certainly be the nominee.  And far from being merely "good enough," there are reasons to believe he will be an enormously effective candidate and an accomplished president.

The best reason to conclude that: All along Team Obama has most feared a Romney candidacy, training almost all of their firepower on the former Massachusetts governor in the hope of denying him the fall showdown with President Obama.  "Mr. Good Enough" to some GOPers is "Mr. Worst Case" to the president.


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Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 9:26 AM

The weekly column from Clark Judge:

Job for Iowa, and the Rest of Us – Tapping the Right Candidate for “the Job”
By Clark S. Judge: managing director, White House Writers Group, Inc.; chairman, Pacific Research Institute
 
Tonight, all over Iowa, Republicans will be debating with one another not just who can win (we’ve all read loads of stories about the “can he win” factors)? Electability will be balanced with a second question, not necessarily one that produces a different answer, but a different question nonetheless.  Who as president would do best at getting the job done?
 
Some years, the nature of “the job” is all over the map.  Not this year.
 
This year, we have a national government that has indulged in the greatest peacetime run up in spending and the greatest peacetime explosion of debt in our history? Government has expanded to a point that, in the sweep and depth of its ever-more-intrusive regulations, reflects a conviction that it operates with no bounds.  Forget about the Constitution.  
 









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Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 2:51 PM


 
Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 11:25 PM

Mitt Romney speaks to fair goers during a campaign stop at the Iowa State Fair in Des Moines, Iowa, Thursday, Aug. 11, 2011. | AP Photo


Let the unsolicited advice begin! My new Washington Examiner column (to be posted later today) lays out ten suggestions for Team Romney to ponder should the former Massachusetts governor's momentum hold up through January and he becomes the presumptive GOP nominee in February.

Over at Article VI Blog there are a set of predictions for Iowa, and don't miss John Mark Reynold's letter to Iowa Evangelicals.

And the Frenches show off their new running gear while also testing a new slogan for Romney "A Yankee governor with southern values."

Now it is a day for The OSU to sink some Gators, and then for the mini-OSU to show off WR Justin Blackmon in their trouncing of Stanford who looks very likely to end up in a Cleveland Browns uni after April's NFL Draft.

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Posted by: Hugh Hewitt at 11:52 AM