This is what I argued on Sean Hannity’s Great American Panel last night: As Reagan’s win in 1980 followed Thatcher’s in 1979, so Romney’s win will follow Walker’s.
Some elections are precursor elections. When Margaret Thatcher won in May of ’79 and then stood tall against the British trade unions, no one knew then that she was not merely a strong leader, but also the first wave of generational reform and resolve.
Ronald Reagan followed her victory with another 18 months later, and still people didn’t understand the enormous change that had taken place. That revolution wouldn’t be fully understood until the Soviet Union fell apart in 1989.
The huge GOP win in 2010 was a major event, but Scott Walker’s triumph yesterday was very much like Thatcher’s win –a foreshadowing of a huge shift that will be completed in its electoral consequences when Mitt Romney wins in November. It is a “foreshock” in earthquake terms, and the size of Walker’s margin of triumph is so large that the commentariat is still absorbing it this morning.
(Look for headlines saying Walker “survived.” Those are dead giveaways of bias or lack of ability. You don’t “survive” with a 7% win –you shatter the opposition. Attempting to downplay the size of Walker’s margin leads to ridicule, as Twitter showed all last night as David Axelrod and MSNBC became the butts of long running jokes: “It’s only 1% in dog years.”)
I also brought up the Waterloo analogy on Sean’s show. A USMC general emailed that he thought almost no one understood it, so let me try again.
When Napoleon escaped from Elba and mad a dash to Paris, he quickly set about triggering a decisive battle. He knew he had to engage and beat the allies immediately or that the tide of history that had turned against him would utterly defeat him.
So he forced a big battle –Waterloo– and threw everything into it. “It was a damned close run thing” Wellington declared, but Wellington and the Brits won.
After the 2010 elections, the Democrats generally and the unions specifically understood they were on the wrong side of a huge defeat and that they had to do something to try and retrieve the political situation. They staked all on Wisconsin, and have waged a desperate political battle there since.
Last night they were utterly and completely defeated. This was Barack Obama’s doing; his policies have brought about the economic stall-out and the sense of quagmire, and the unions, especially those living off of tax payer dollars, backed up his most ridiculous demands and his most obstinate positions.
The turning that began in 2010 hit high gear last night and is rushing now towards November. Obama could rally and October surprises will no doubt be sprung but the debate about domestic policy is effectively over. Go and contribute to Mitt Romney’s campaign and other key races to keep that momentum fueled and growing. If Romney can win by 9% in 5 months, the country has a chance of turning everything around, and quickly.
One more thing. Never believe exit polls. Republicans should be to exit polls as Catol the Elder was to Carthage. Exit polls always overstate Democratc strength and no matter how often the experts announce reforms, they cannot get them to work. Similarly, polling using huge Democratic margins of 5% or higher in turnout models are just junk, useful only in obscuring the gathering rejection of the president and his hard left policies and ruinous legacy.