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59, 38, 32, 5, 1

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That’s the RCP Delegate Count:

Thompson 5

CNN has Romney with 66, Huckabee 38, and McCain 26, but you get the picture.

In terms of total votes cast in primaries and caucuses to date (excluding Wyoming, for which I don’t have a total):

McCain 510,132
Huckabee 339,824

Romney has a decisive lead among Republican votes cast to date as McCain’s numbers reflect the large majority of Independents’ votes he rolled up in New Hampshire, Michigan and South Carolina.

Florida is open only to Republicans and voting has been underway for weeks. It is a dead heat between Romney, McCain, Huckabee and Giuliani. Voters in Florida are in for the most interesting 10 day campaign in recent political history. It is an elimination round in which at least one and possibly two of the would-be nominees will be sent to the sidelines. There is no front-runner, and there is no “momentum” though Romney has three state wins, McCain two and Huck one. What is said and done by the candidates over the next few days will decide Florida and nothing else. Even as they focus on this confused picture, the issues dominating the debate are changing rapidly to elevate the economy over immigration and the war. That has to favor Romney, and McCain is still burdened by the antipathy of many Reagan conservatives.

If the Florida electorate reflects the general opinion of Republicans who have voted thus far, Romney will win in the Sunshine State.

The GOP is at a crossroads, and because it is, so is the country. In ten days, Florida Republicans will have a huge say in setting its course for the next decade, and Florida’s Reagan Republicans the most decisive say of all.


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