Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan have conducted a campaign that continually sharpened the differences between their platform and the record of President Obama. The choice is clear. It is understood by even “low information” voters. It is that clarity that gives me confidence in today’s vote.
Rasmussen’s numbers on the huge shift towards the GOP in just the past two years much less that past four provide a second engine of enthusiasm for today’s showdown. Republicans now make up 39% of the population, up from 33.4% two years ago while Democrats have lost ground –from 36.3% to 33.3% over the same 24 months. The gain for the GOP is even greater compared to October of 2008, and the total swing –14% over two years– will drive today’s result.
Michael Novak articulates the reasons behind the center-right’s confidence. My short version: There isn’t any doubt that the GOP will be turning out in huge numbers to vote for Romney/Ryan, but there are many reasons why the Democratic base won’t. As has been said many times before, this is a replay of the 1980 elections, and the stakes are just as high.
The good news –the great news– is that people are paying attention and know the president’s record and why four more years would be a disaster for the United States. As Carol Platt Liebau notes, many people, including herself, have gone from anti-Obama to pro-Romney. That is the highest propensity voter out there, the disillusioned-turned-enthusiast. They are legion. Mitt Romney closed the deal for many reasons, but primarily by demonstrating again and again and especially in the debates that he is a supremely confident, capable, charismatic and kind man. This last display –of the Mitt who is a wonderful husband and father and faithful member of his church community as well as his city, state and businesses– this has propelled his “favorables” way north and with them his rising chances of a statement win.
The country doesn’t need one turnaround, but several. Mitt can deliver them all. The president, none.
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For a collection of infomred predictions, see National Review’s symposium (which includes mine.) Tomorrow’s broadcast begins at 6 and goes until the new president’s election is called and the balance in the Senate decided. Could be an early night.
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